EFL Championship Predictions 20/21 — did i cheat and still feck it up?

I waited until November to predict the EFL tables this season. I thought it would give me a better chance to analyse play and submit a more accurate opinion instead of just basing it on who’s purchased who and who looks like they want a tasty bit of title.

So I cheated.

When I didn’t cheat, I posted a score of -140. (Last season, here), which is about halfway to awful, so if I manage to do any better, it could determine once and for all that cheaters do prosper.
Or at least that coursework submitted after the deadline is better is more likely to achieve a higher grade.

Here’s where I had them finishing in the Champo when I predicted the final table in November. And here’s what I said about ‘em.

1. Reading
2. Norwich City
3. Swansea City
4. Watford
5. Middlesbrough
6. Stoke City
7. Blackburn Rovers
8. Bournemouth
9. Cardiff City
10. Brentford
11. Millwall
12. Luton Town
13. Bristol City
14. Derby County
15. Preston North End
16. Huddersfield Town
17. Birmingham City
18. Rotherham United
19. Nottingham Forest
20. QPR
21. Coventry City
22. Barnsley
23. Sheffield Wednesday
24. Wycombe Wanderers

And here’s where they actually finished.

1. Norwich City
2. Watford
3. Brentford
4. Swansea City
5. Barnsley
6. Bournemouth
7. Reading
8. Cardiff City
9. QPR
10. Middlesbrough
11. Millwall
12. Luton Town
13. Preston North End
14. Stoke City
15. Blackburn Rovers
16. Coventry City
17. Nottingham Forest
18. Birmingham City
19. Bristol City
20. Huddersfield Town
21. Derby County
22. Wycombe Wanderers
23. Rotherham United
24. Sheffield Wednesday

And now let’s calculate a score.

The aim is to get as close to 0 as possible, starting from 0, with any difference in positions coming off my score.
For example, my beginning score is 0, I had Norwich finishing 2nd, they finished 1st, that’s minus 1 off my score.

So, do cheaters prosper? Let’s have a gander.

BOURNEMOUTH

Predicted: 8th / Actual: 6th
They looked a bit slow early doors and were bringing too much of that namby-pamby Prem game with them. In the end, however, it was that namby-pambiness concentrated that saw them secure a play-off spot. Not sure about a long-term Woodgate appointment, but if he sees them through the play-offs, who knows?

Score: -2

BARNSLEY

Predicted: 22nd / Actual: 5th
That’ll teach me to underrate a guy called Valérien. He took a team and seemed to just flick the switch that everyone else was missing — suddenly there were comfortably grinding out results, maintaining a solid back-line, and charging for the play-offs, a charge that ended successfully.
More folk need to be talking about this, ‘cos this was proper class.

Score: -17

BIRMINGHAM

Predicted: 17th / Actual: 18th
I said Aitor was gonna bring stability, and he kinda did, but they were hella rackety stabilisers. It was the chance departure of Lee Bowyer from Charlton that Birmingham seemed to be waiting for, and so they pounced, and call it new manager bounce if ya like, but Bowyer has proved his mettle already and looks a good shout to get Birmingham off the wrong end of the table. This is Birmingham though…

Score: -1

BLACKBURN

Predicted: 7th / Actual: 15th
They should have been so much higher. This might be the proof that Mowbray has taken this side as far as he can, with the team glowing individually in each position near enough, just not flowing. Someone’s probably gonna come in for next season and nick the glory — if they can keep hold of the likes of Armstrong, Rothwell, Dolan, and Nyambe.

Score: -8

BRENTFORD

Predicted: 10th / Actual: 3rd
This was just me underestimating how long it would take Brentford to bounce back from a departure or two and a play-off final defeat. The Bees have evolved into one of the best run clubs in the division, and they swiftly bounced back with Ivan Toney remaining sparklingly consistent, as well as others such as Canos and Fosu stepping into a void left by Benrahma, making it look like his departure never happened. I said they needed to tighten up at the back, and they did, so they earned their spot, and a Premier League spot can’t be much further behind.

Score: -7

BRISTOL CITY

Predicted: 13th / Actual: 19th
I’m not sure what Nigel Pearson has changed, but I don’t think it’s had the desired effect. There was no flirting with the play-offs for The Robins, just a wildly inconsistent season that’s left fans, viewers, and everyone else frustrated and confused.

Score: -6

CARDIFF

Predicted: 9th / Actual: 8th
Well, they weren’t matching my prediction, and then they were! It was almost as if Mick McCarthy saw that I wasn’t gonna be close enough so stepped in and got them playing to my level, and then stopped them. So cheers, Mick, you made my score better than it should have been. And restored confidence in the Cardiff side, but that’s secondary really, isn’t it?

Score: -1

COVENTRY

Predicted: 21st/ Actual: 16th
They stuck to the plan and it paid off. They posted big wins when they needed them and outplayed those below them. For a season of consolidation, I’d take it. A few individuals shined so they might wanna sort out some permanent deals for some of their lush loanees if they wanna consolidate this squad as well, otherwise the next steps forward will be brave and bold.

Score: -5

DERBY

Predicted: 14th / Actual: 21st
Very little desire displayed by The Rams. Perhaps it was the odd mix of experience and youth, mashed together by a rookie manager, who could maybe use a season in League One with a comparatively strong squad?
Well they’re not gonna get it. They limped over the line mostly thanks to Marlon Pack and a coach-shaped defence. They’ll be back, but only just.

Score: -7

HUDDERSFIELD

Predicted: 16th / Actual: 20th
Good ideals don’t always translate and Corberan took some unncecessary risks with an already risky side. They need a firm hand on the rudder at the moment, and commitment to Corberan might be key, the alternative would be an old hand who can rebuild cracking foundations before they fall into a state of disrepair.

Score: -4

LUTON

Predicted: 12th / Actual: 12th
This is exactly what they needed. The drama surrounding Nathan Jones’ departure and return seem a million years ago, with the club and all those involved reacting really maturely — which is an odd thing to say about football. The Hatters are back on track and with a season like this they can identify what they’ve got, but more importantly, what they need to work on to push on and achieve what seemed impossible only a decade ago.

Score: 0

MIDDLESBROUGH

Predicted: 5th / Actual: 10th
Warnock was annoyingly good at this level once again, but it didn’t overshadow anything this time. In fact, you’d be forgiven for thinking he was Middlesbrough’s manager at all.
Though a mid-table finish isn’t to be sniffed at, ‘Boro failed to really capitalise on their historically miserly nature, which could mean they’ll double-down and concede less than zero goals next season or they’ve got a fresh approach that comes with a long term change of personnel.

Score: -5

MILLWALL

Predicted: 11th / Actual: 11th
And I quote — ‘It’ll be another entertaining but ultimately frustrating miss for the lads from The Den. You’ll watch five games that make it look like they deserve automatic promotion and then three games that make them look like relegation candidates, and that’ll be their whole season.’
I mean… Yeah. Maybe not to the extremes I stated, but pretty much, aye. They seem to always have a core of players they can rely on, so it might be time to expand from that, even if it’s a big risk in the current climate.

Score: 0

NORWICH

Predicted: 2nd / Actual: 1st
Again, I could take what I said eight or so months ago and paste it in. They were prepping for this before last season was over, and they didn’t panic. When this season started, they just got right back to it, the picture of professionalism — and that can’t be commended enough. I thought the Prem hangover might tickle them a little bit, but they just shook it off as if they’d necked a pint of water before bed and went right back into the office, getting there a bit early to make sure.

Score: -1

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Predicted: 19th / Actual: 17th
Honestly, I’ve kinda nailed three on the bounce here. One upper-table, one mid-table, and now one-lower table. Norwich didn’t need to change, they were winning. Millwall were too consistently inconsistent to go through constant change, and Forest just couldn’t. Hughton came in and got ’em playing a more adapted style, but I reckon a lot of lads have struck their true colours here.
BRING IN THE DIGGERS, OVERHAUL INCOMING
Expect a French manager even The Athletic haven’t heard of followed by a slew of signings from Spanish Non-League and the Israeli Second Division.

Score: -2

PRESTON

Predicted: 15th / Actual: 13th
On one hand, I thought Alex Neil’s sacking was too harsh. With a lot to adapt to in the current climate, there wasn’t a lot of help incoming. On the other hand, his side were stagnating and in need of a refresher. I believe they’re in a solid enough position to take a risk under new management, so the fans have a reason to be equal parts excited and bricking it, I’d say.

Score: -2

QPR

Predicted: 20th / Actual: 9th
This one caught me out of nowhere. A late surge made their season look pretty feckin’ fly, but they need to sort themselves out at the back. There’s no authority and as the last two seasons have displayed, it’s cost ‘em.
Up front, they just need to keep pushing on. Put a coin in the QPR machine and they will score, but more viable coin slots wouldn’t go amiss.
I’m happy to be wrong if it keeps Mark Warburton in a job.

Score: -11

READING

Predicted: 1st / Actual: 7th
Yeah, alright, I jumped the gun. I got excited, but can you blame me? They showed all the hallmarks of a team going up automatically! I’d spied them over the recent seasons assembling a squad, little bits of quality coming in from here and there, and then this season, I thought it was it. My bad.
Will it be next season though? There are a few garnering a lot of interest from passing window shoppers that’ll have to survive the Summer if so, otherwise, it’s one step forward, two steps back for Th Royals.

Score: -6

ROTHERHAM

Predicted: 18th / Actual: 23rd
Cruel. The only word I can think of. Marlon Pack is a cruel man. It’s a case of ifs and buts for Paul Warne and his lads, whose plan is stuck at the Champo-Survival stage. Perhaps it was fixture congestion, perhaps it was a lack of strengthening, perhaps it was just Marlon Pack, but it’s back to square League One for Rotherham.

Score: -5

WEDNESDAY

Predicted: 23rd / Actual: 24th
How many days in a week? Six, Wednesday got relegated.
The points deduction obviously did ’em in, but they had time to recover and just couldn’t. They stumbled all over the shop and with numerous momentum shifts in that final decider against Derby, they couldn’t get into the right gear right at the death.
Darren Moore will be taking a strong squad down to League One, but that could all change by the time we get to the restart.

Score: -1

STOKE

Predicted: 6th / Actual: 14th
I just cannae see this team winning anything. They’re solid, they’ll hold steadfast, but to push on, to innovate, to craft out a promotion, it’s not on the cards. And so it proved this season. Imagination was there, but all too infrequently and ineffectively. An influx might be needed, but that could upset a fine, if unspectacular, balance. Keep at it slowly and steadily and they could easy reap rewards as well.

Score: -8

SWANSEA

Predicted: 3rd / Actual: 4th
All that solidity, flash, and heart from last season was meshed into a neat little package this time round. There never seemed to be any doubt they would make the play-offs, and they’ve once again done that thing that Swansea seem to do, and that is cultivate a squad that plays for the team — a unit strong enough to gun for promotion.

Score: -1

WATFORD

Predicted: 4th / Actual: 2nd
They had promise coming into it and I think I just underestimated how that promise would manifest. The squad was streamlined and has been as the season has gone on, with Xisco running a tight ship, and with some fairly long-standing lads now getting a chance to show what they got, they go up with a team full of vim and readiness.
In the back of my head, I’ve got Xisco as the first managerial casualty for next season, but that might have more to do with Watford’s history in that department than anything else.

Score: -2

WYCOMBE

Predicted: 24th / Actual: 22nd
I don’t wanna patronise the club here, but I am so proud of ’em. For advancement on and off the pitch, and taking themselves to the last game of the season with a chance of survival despite being written off by everyone and their mother from day dot. If Gareth Ainsworth had kept them up, even by a single goal, he would have been the manager of the season no doubt.
Heart and passion was obvious throughout and Wycombe have proved that if you have that, you’ll always be a threat.
I don’t know anyone who was rooting against these lot, and here’s to the bright future that Wycombe Wanderers clearly have.

Also glad that all the bets that had them finishing bottom aren’t gonna come in either. Including mine.

Score: -2

— —

I’m always amazed when after months and months of football to decide winners and losers, the entire season for two sides can still come down to final few minutes.

It’s what’s fantastic about football.

And though we bid farewell to Wycombe, Rotherham, Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich, Watford, and one other side, six will replace them and the Champo can be thrilling all over again.

And beyond.

My final score ended up at…

-104

And that’s not… Bad? Better than last year. I’d have really liked to be out of the hundreds. Fuck you, Barnsley, and all your tremendous work.

MY BIGGEST WINNERS — Luton, Millwall — 0
MY BIGGEST LOSERS — Barnsley — -17, QPR — -11

Maybe next season, eh? I’ll see you there. With feckin’ bells on.

Keep it streets ahead,

C.L.R.