I adore trying to work things out. I enjoy recording myself trying to work things out. This is what that is. Somewhere in the back of my mind, I believe that if I do this for long enough, with the correct intensity and passion, that I will one day be able to achieve the perfect score.
But the beautiful thing is… That’s never gonna happen.
Two seasons ago (19/20), I posted a score of -152. It was terrible, I was punished, and I moved on.
Last season, I got -117. Better, but still not what I want. I want double-digits, and I will inflict pain in an attempt to reach them.
And so here I am for my third attempt. I posted this as a prediction several months ago, and now I can see if my chickens have finally come home to roost. But, y’know, in a good way.
This was the table I predicted:-
1. Northampton Town
2. Bradford City
3. Salford City
4. Forest Green Rovers
5. Newport County
6. Mansfield Town
7. Colchester United
8. Leyton Orient
9. Tranmere Rovers
10. Carlisle United
11. Rochdale
12. Port Vale
13. Bristol Rovers
14. Exeter City
15. Walsall
16. Crawley Town
17. Oldham Athletic
18. Barrow
19. Harrogate Town
20. Stevenage
21. Sutton United
22. Hartlepool United
23. Swindon Town
24. Scunthorpe United
And this is where it all actually ended up:-
1. Forest Green Rovers
2. Exeter City
3. Bristol Rovers
4. Northampton Town
5. Port Vale
6. Swindon Town
7. Mansfield Town
8. Sutton United
9. Tranmere Rovers
10. Salford City
11. Newport County
12. Crawley Town
13. Leyton Orient
14. Bradford City
15. Colchester United
16. Walsall
17. Hartlepool United
18. Rochdale
19. Harrogate Town
20. Carlisle United
21. Stevenage
22. Barrow
23. Oldham Athletic
24. Scunthorpe United
I can see where I’ve gone wrong, and I know why I’ve gone wrong. At first glance, this probably ain’t gonna get double-digits. Which means I’ll get the lashes again.
But let’s confirm it just so I can’t complain.
The scoring is done by difference in finishes with the aim to score as close to zero as possible. So say I had Salford finishing 8th and they actually finished 20th, that would be -12 off my score right there.
Ya with me?
Good. Let’s see how badly I should be beaten.
BARROW
Predicted: 18th / Actual: 22nd
The Mark Cooper spell didn’t work as intended, and instead of consolidating, it stagnated The Shipbuilders. I did not think Phil Brown would be the solve, but how wrong I was. He did enough in the final few games to inspire what was within this team the whole time and avoid the drop. Is Brown a long-term appointment? Perhaps. They feel more like a project build and could go the way of a McKenna at Ipswich, or a Rowberry or Edwards at Newport or Forest Green, respectively. That seems to work for consolidation, and with a mouldable crew of players packed with experience in youth, it could be a match made in Cumbria.
Score: -4
BRADFORD
Predicted: 2nd / Actual: 14th
I thought Adams was gonna be the League Two whisperer again. He’d done so good the first time, and then with Morecambe, I thought he’d essentially done the impossible, so who was I to doubt that he was the one to return Bradford to a relative throne?
But he didn’t. He couldn’t get a frustrating Bradford side to click and then Mark Hughes cropped up in a move that no-one apart from him saw coming. It took him a beat, but the wheels then started rolling and for next season, well that could be the one for The Bantams.
Score: -12
BRISTOL ROVERS
Predicted: 13th / Actual: 3rd
Up to the halfway point, I probably would have been right. But from January, their last 25 games, they lost only three, drew only six, and won 16 games. Including their last one by quite a margin, apparently.
I didn’t see this band of boring names that all blend together doing that at the start of the season or at the midway point, but their push and shove approach complete with appropriate finesse granted Barton’s Gas a step back up at the first time of asking.
Score: -10
CARLISLE
Predicted: 10th / Actual: 20th
It was disappointing when Beech had to step down. It was more disappointing when Keith Millen was appointed. It was an experimental step all the way backwards. But sometimes steps backwards can work, just ask Paul Simpson. He stepped back into the fold and got Omari Patrick among others rate fired up for the game. The new manager bounce paid off, and I’d love to see it continue into the new season.
Score: -10
COLCHESTER
Predicted: 7th / Actual: 15th
This score probably should have been way worse, and it’s a testament to Wayne Brown and his resurgent Colly-flowers that it’s not. However, the silver lining is that in the previous article I stated that the voice in my head told me they’d finish 15th — so at least I know that’s not always trying to hurt me.
Colchester rallied once Brown came in. It took them a hot second, but leaders started emerging and trend-setters began setting trends. There’s a strong core there now, but it’s not unbreakable — I’d be looking at a two-season jobbie to get ’em back to top standards.
Score: -8 (but shoulda been 0)
CRAWLEY
Predicted: 16th / Actual: 12th
Weirdly, I think some people saw what happened at Crawley coming.
It was a dark end to a season that actually contained a lot of promise for a side that rarely seems to change. They seemed able to isolate, or segregate, issues of contention on the pitch which really saw them kick up into the race for the playoffs.
There’s a solid bunch in that locker room (and apparently also out of it), and with new, ambitious owners, they’re well capable of pushing on — if they can get over this funk.
Which seems like a light-hearted word for what allegedly went down.
Score: -4
EXETER
Predicted: 14th / Actual: 2nd
At the start of the season, I likened Exeter to Trigger’s broom. All different parts, all different broom. What I forgot to factor in, however, was that Trigger’s broom, despite the changes in hardware, was in fact still a broom.
The club ain’t stupid, they knew what they were doing, and an academy that has been quietly going about its business very eagerly popped its head up to say ‘how do’ this season. The likes of Jack Sparkes and Archie Collins (who’ve been plugging away for a while now) were joined by Josh Key and Harry Kite, not to mention fresh signings like Timothee Dieng, Sam Nombe, and Cameron Dawson (a coup, by the way). Everyone put in a shift, everyone played their part to near perfection, and everyone earned promotion for The Grecians alongside actually winning it.
Score: -12
FOREST GREEN
Predicted: 4th / Actual: 1st
I thought the new manager and lingering issues might take a second longer to peter out, but the first three-quarters of FGR’s season was magic. They lacked conviction as the season drew to a close, which is certainly concerning, but the ferocity and veracity with which they took most of League Two was absolute quality — and it was largely down to simple, grinding, hard-working football — little of what they did was revolutionary. They might have seemed lucky to land the title on the final day, but they, and many others, will assure you that luck had nothing to do with it.
Score: -3
HARROGATE
Predicted: 19th / Actual: 19th
This is not how I thought they’d end up here. But in a round-about way, it kinda was. Their skeleton gave out too often, and the need for reinforcements is obvious. Veterans and seniority are near-vital in any time, and it provides The Sulphurites a tremendous foundation, but only two or three players displayed the kind of explosivity that turns draws into wins and losses into draws (or even wins), and only one managed it consistently — and he was on loan. One of the others was a centre-back.
A wee switch-around in recruitment might be necessary, otherwise Harrogate could be looking at more of the same next season. Or worse.
Score: 0
HARTLEPOOL
Predicted: 22nd / Actual: 17th
Like Colchester, this one could’ve been worse were it not for a drop-off in form late on that dragged down their final position. At one point, they were looking to finish strongly as one of the best of the rest outside the playoffs, but an apparently dire run (that I didn’t think was too bad) saw Graeme Lee sacked and the side having to start relatively afresh next season.
Player inclusions and departures were strange, and the same could be said for managerial departures too, but it left the squad looking muddled, almost relying on their own wits too often and burning out sooner.
Hartlepool need straightening out and given a clear game plan next season or these players might pack in physically and mentally.
Score: -5
LEYTON ORIENT
Predicted: 8th / Actual: 13th
I overestimated Kenny Jackett and his abilities — I thought he could turn his hand to any club and produce results, but alas, he is only human. He’ll do it next time though. A powerful side couldn’t seem to mesh, and the worst thing was, you knew they still should have been scoring. When a team with that firepower isn’t, the pressure is always gonna mount higher. When Richie Wellens came in though, he seemed to take the opus off those attacking few and spread it across the team. They flowered under their new responsibilities and regained a lot of lost confidence. Look out for a bull of a team next season — The Orient Express might be on its way.
Score: -5
MANSFIELD
Predicted: 6th / Actual: 7th
I near-perfectly estimated Nigel Clough and his abilities, and the ability of his side. I mentioned at the start of the season that his loans were shrewd, but how he pulled off Matty Longstaff coming to League Two is beyond my comprehension.
A tremendous fourteen-game undefeated streak (including eight wins in a row) turned them into serious contenders, and they never really let that momentum slip, and those previously taking a moment (Lapslie, Oates) joined the likes of McLaughlin and Bishop in firing The Stags into the upper echelons and once again proving Clough’s silent tenacity at any level.
Score: -1
NEWPORT
Predicted: 5th / Actual: 11th
A few too many draws and then just three wins in their last ten saw what looked like a guaranteed play-off spot slip away. The Golden Boot, along with a whole host of tested talent and prodigious youth looked to have them on course, but they just couldn’t stay it. They looked burned out, out of ideas, too easily turned inside-out, and ultimately — out of the race. It could easily have been their chance as well, for though I don’t think they’ll struggle next time out, the departures of useful loans for Azaz, Street, and Cooper will leave gaps to be filled for a manager still finding his footing.
Score: -6
NORTHAMPTON
Predicted: 1st / Actual: 4th
They missed out on the title I predicted, and then missed out on automatic promotion that many, many more would have predicted as late as kick-off on the final day of the season! Despite this, The Cobblers were the side who appeared to have everything necessary for one of those magical seasons. They had the goal-scoring centre back, a couple of assist wizards, a number of reliable goal-scorers, a feisty yet level-headed manager, and a goalkeeper who was an all-star in the division, but…
It didn’t work.
I can’t even see where it didn’t work. They lost a few games, but so did everyone. Even when they won when they needed to, it didn’t work out for them. It’s like that moment when you watch the highlights show and the pundits tell you they’ve been on a downward spiral but you could have sworn they’d won five on the bounce before the loss you’d just watch them take. They were largely more consistent than Forest Green and Bristol Rovers, but unfortunately for the Brady Bunch, the footballing gods looked against them.
Score: -3
OLDHAM
Predicted: 17th / Actual: 23rd
It looked set for the Oldham of seasons passed. To feck a lot up but hang on thanks to a few good eggs. Well those eggs might be about ready to fly the coop.
The club suffered under dangerous ownership and the cloud never appeared to lift fully, with John Sheridan only able to alleviate it for a short time. Play was messy and lost, there didn’t seem to be hope in vital portions of games, and too often, they crumbled under the pressure they found upon them. If others hadn’t have fought, The Latics might have had a chance, but they were never going to be the toughest scrappers in the lowly pack.
Score: -6
PORT VALE
Predicted: 12th / Actual: 5th
I said they’d be to League Two what Reading are to the WSL, but no! Like Bristol Rovers, I found them tough to predict, and like Bristol Rovers, it was because of their boringly named players, but unlike Bristol Rovers, Vale didn’t have the x-factor of having just dropped a division, so I was stumped.
It turns out that a collection of League Two specialists can be strung together to create quite the outfit, however. Signings like Mal Benning, Tom Pett, and James Wilson merely provided the sauce to existing names like Worrall and Smith, as well as the veg of an up-and-coming youth academy to create a Sunday roast that also looks good on Saturday afternoons.
Score: -7
ROCHDALE
Predicted: 11th / Actual: 18th
They kept hold of a lot of the names that were gonna do them right at this level — but only until January. Then the departures of those who had proven that they were gonna do them right at this level came and replacements were needed. The replacements were sufficient, but with the releases that have come in the post-season, Stockdale is gonna need a whole host of fresh faces to start a new age at Rochdale, as they are coming off a flat, inconsistent, and wholly unremarkable season to close this one.
Score: -7
SALFORD
Predicted: 3rd / Actual: 10th
It seems Salford have found their role as the nearly-men of League Two. An inability to maintain the necessary form for a sustained surge at the playoffs is a frustrating thing to see — like an itch that you only just brush with your fingertips. Goalscorers continue to pour in, as well as recognisable and dependable names across the park, but the results aren’t coming, and while for some constant mid-table-ness is consolidation, for Salford, it might just be stagnation.
They provide hope at all the wrong moments, and it’s the hope that kills you.
Score: -7
SCUNTHORPE
Predicted: 24th / Actual: 24th
I mean, come on. Yeah.
This was their Final Destination season. They weren’t supposed to be here and relegation was chasing them down from the start trying to correct the wrongs from previously. They won four games. They lost seven in a row on two occasions and on each of those occasions, they scored only twice. Both of those runs came in 2022. It was hapless and hopeless. The only player who could seemingly make any difference was their goalkeeper and the only accolade he can take away is that he stopped The Iron from conceding 100 in a season.
This could very easily go down as one of the worst on-pitch seasons in the history of EFL League Two — there was no fight, no fire, and now, no place in the EFL.
Score: 0
STEVENAGE
Predicted: 20th / Actual: 21st
Let the Steven Age begin at Stevenage. They were passively floating towards the relegation zone for most of the season, seemingly thinking they’d done enough in the first few games of the season and the year to survive. They hadn’t. And luckily for them, they’d held on just long enough on replacing Paul Tisdale that the Oldham Shezzarection had worn off and it was their go on the trampoline. An immediate spring of confidence in forgotten players followed, and survival was not too far behind. They look well placed for a run next season, but there’ll be work to be done with a squad too used to the lower things in the league.
Score: -1
SUTTON
Predicted: 21st / Actual: 8th
Well, what a first EFL season for these lot. They didn’t change much, they stuck with seniority, and they clung to a game-plan, and that got them to the cusp of the playoffs and a Wembley final.
The passion on display was obvious. At times, if they weren’t playing particularly well, their willingness to keep on running, or to reach a bit further than their opponents was telling. Their ability to maintain good league form alongside a Papa John’s delivery was commendable, but they might just be thinking now that it cost ‘em.
But I’m sure they’ll get over it as they begin to build on a sparkling start.
Score: -13
SWINDON
Predicted: 23rd / Actual: 6th
Alright, so I don’t like Ben Garner so much. His run at Bristol Rovers really poisoned him against me and I will always predict for him to do badly with whatever team he is in charge of or involved with. And I hope for him to continue to defy that.
While there wasn’t a tonne of finesse, Swindon bullied and harassed (in a nice way) their way up the table and although they gave several reasons for their fans to fear that they might miss out on the playoffs, the power-play would eventually pay off. Attacking lines running throughout the squad came good and displayed a team that only failed to score in only seven games all season.
And two of those games were against Tranmere.
Score: -17
TRANMERE
Predicted: 9th / Actual: 9th
So two very small victories for Tranmere then. Two clean sheets against Swindon, the only team not to concede against the high-scorers, and a perfect score in this insignificant prediction game. They played their cards so close to their chest to begin with — there were ten goals in total in their first ten games. So they had to feel like opening up. The goals still weren’t flying about, but as they put more away, they left themselves more exposed — they could never find that balance. Though they held firm and conceded the second-fewest in the league, it was that low tally peering over from the early season that cost them as they ranked in the lower half of the table on goals scored — something that January signings just couldn’t remedy.
Score: 0
WALSALL
Predicted: 15th / Actual: 16th
Walsall have surely dropped off over the past few seasons, but Michael Flynn could be the guy to pick up the pieces, with a capable squad in amongst the shatter. Suave signings saw some sparkle, but too few and far between. For every Rushworth and Miller sheen, there was a player not fulfilling their potential. Earing and Monthe were touted highly upon arrival but never got the chance to display what they could do. Getting the best out of these players and others in the side will be key if Walsall are to ascend.
Score: -1
— —
Holy Moses, that didn’t feel good.
I was typing out a lot of double digits, and a lot of high-end single digits. Having scanned ’em, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was my worst score ever, regardless of league.
Which means I was surprised. Which is lovely. Every weekend I tuned into EFL on Quest, I would pull the sides of my lips back, raise my eyebrows, and nod my head at many a result that stood before me. Ben Garner kicked me in the balls, Sutton proved me and the divide wrong, and the show, as a whole, will be missed.
And you know who else will be missed? Forest Green. Oldham. Exeter. Bristol Rovers. Scunthorpe. And one other lucky ducky.
Sure, they’ll pop up elsewhere, on another list most likely, but for those avid watchers of League Two who watch nothing else, they’ll be a memory for at least a season. But they’ll have a new cast to try and get used to! ‘Cos that always works! Well it does always work here actually! Wimbledon, Crewe, Doncaster, and Gillingham have all returned to a land they know so well, and we’re still waiting on two mystery sides to rise up from the National League, ISN’T IT EXCITING!?
So much to look forward to.
To tide you over until then, I can give you my score so you can cross one thing off your list. It came to…
-142
I think as wrong as I can be is -288, so I’m just below the halfway point.
That’s as much solace as I can take, because that is dismal.
That being said, it’s better than my -152 from a few seasons back. But still worse than my -117 from last time. And since my aim is to always improve (at least in this personal game of mine) this is poor, and a failure.
MY BIGGEST WINNERS — Harrogate, Scunthorpe, Tranmere — 0, Walsall, Stevenage, Mansfield — -1
MY BIGGEST LOSERS — Swindon — -17, Sutton — -13, Bradford, Exeter — -12, Carlisle, Bristol Rovers — -10
Those first six, one quarter of the league, cancelled out by another quarter.
But I will not be deterred, and I will be back. With this series, sure — but wild geese couldn’t keep me from watching another season of this division.
I do hope you’ll tackle those birds with me.
Keep it streets ahead,
C.L.R.
