Another season gone, another prediction series in what I’m sure is a sea of them, but you know what sets this one apart? It’s mine. There are many like it, but this one is mine. My prediction series is not my best friend, nor is it my life, but it’s something that I started doing and liked the idea of getting old and having a record of my near-mindless predictions of various football leagues.
And this one’s for the Premier League!
The highest division of English Football where enduring legends are forged in the fires of searing competition and bubbling rivalry. This season, like all those that came before, followed suit.
On the table below, you will see my predicted table:-
1. Liverpool
2. Manchester City
3. Chelsea
4. Tottenham Hotspur
5. Arsenal
6. Manchester United
7. West Ham United
8. Aston Villa
9. Newcastle United
10. Leicester City
11. Crystal Palace
12. Wolves
13. Nottingham Forest
14. Leeds United
15. Brighton
16. Southampton
17. Brentford
18. Everton
19. Fulham
20. Bournemouth
And this is how it actually finished:-
1. Manchester City
2. Arsenal
3. Manchester United
4. Newcastle United
5. Liverpool
6. Brighton
7. Aston Villa
8. Tottenham Hotspur
9. Brentford
10. Fulham
11. Crystal Palace
12. Chelsea
13. Wolves
14. West Ham United
15. Bournemouth
16. Nottingham Forest
17. Everton
18. Leicester City
19. Leeds United
20. Southampton
The obvious differences between those two tables are palpable. The reasons behind those obvious differences summon emotions from every extremity depending on who you are. But did you see them coming as I didn’t?
The rules for this wee game are thus: I score each team on the difference between my prediction and their actual finish, for example: if I had Bournemouth finishing 10th and they end up finishing 19th, that would be a score of -9. Simple.
My scores in previous seasons have looked like this:-
2018/19 — -56
2019/20 — -72
2020/21 — -56
2021/22 — -84
So at the moment, I’m just looking to improve on my worst ever score from last season. The worst I could possibly do is around -200 so I think I’ve done well to maintain double-digits. Plus, if patterns are anything to go by, I’m gonna get -56 this time round.
Let’s see.
So just how did the 2022/23 Premier League season end?
ARSENAL
Predicted: 5th / Actual: 2nd
So close yet so far for what seems like an emergent side under Mikel Arteta. Sure, this time might not have been their time, but it was their time for a long time, until it wasn’t. It will feel like there are less positives to take because of the way their lead was conceded, but they are still vibrant, and remembering where this Arsenal side was just a few short seasons ago will leave supporters beaming over this one.
Score: -3
ASTON VILLA
Predicted: 8th / Actual: 7th
What I said would happen, happened. The only difference is that it wasn’t under Stevie G. He was booted, Unai rocked up, and my prediction commenced, and then some! They kicked into gear, gelled as they haven’t in seasons on seasons in the top flight, and look poised to push on next time out. I was out by one point, and one manager.
Score: -1
BOURNEMOUTH
Predicted: 20th / Actual: 15th
I’m writing this specific entry the day after Bournemouth have sacked Gary O’Neil. I didn’t think it was a great decision to have O’Neil in on a temporary basis, let alone permanently, so when he was entrusted to the role and did as good a job as he did, yeah, he won me over. Especially since he had a rough start to permanent spell and still managed to recover and steer a side many tipped for relegation even at the midpoint of the season to safety well before the final day. He and his side put in one of the best shifts to attain survival the English top flight has ever seen, and that will be Gary O’Neil’s only reward at The Vitality. Andoni does look a good fit though, and I look forward to what he and his new side bring.
Score: -5
BRENTFORD
Predicted: 17th / Actual: 9th
Feckin’ second-season syndrome is letting me down big time in recent seasons. The players weren’t exposed because they are part of a good team with a good core and solid foundations and they are well-prepared for the future, not just season-on-season. Sometimes a gut feeling needs a bit of mental influence to speak some sense, and Brentford are a team full of mental influence.
Score: -8
BRIGHTON
Predicted: 15th / Actual: 6th
Kinda the same deal as Brentford, bar all the second-season stuff. A team with a good base is gonna bake quicker and get delivered sooner. Where it is a separate deal to Brentford is in how much they pressed on under De Zerbi. It was something to behold and something not often seen in this day and age, but taking what Potter had built and seeing that as a mighty height while climbing so much higher makes Potter look bad, when in reality, it shouldn’t harm Potter, and should only show how much the players have bought into what Roberto is doing. For a manager to come in and be so trusted with every move is startling, and in this instance, refreshing and mighty exciting.
Score: -9
CHELSEA
Predicted: 3rd / Actual: 12th
One doesn’t love to see it, but… You love to see it, don’t cha? A big club feckin’ it’s massive finances and just chucking whatever they can at a wall to see what sticks, only to find that they forgot to make the wall sticky in the first place. What a state. Say what you will about the sides who finished below them and their quality of football, but each and every one of them put on more entertaining spectacles in one of their games than Chelsea could muster all season long. A season to well and truly forget, or rather, one that folk would do well to remember. Car crash stuff from a side with more money than Croesus, but like Croesus, Solon has met many more fortunate.
Score: -9
CRYSTAL PALACE
Predicted: 11th / Actual: 11th
One of the more surprising sackings, then one of the more surprising appointments. I will say that the young players Palace had weren’t coming on leaps and bounds under Vieira, though they were certainly acclimatising. When Roy came back in however, they kicked on and then some, as if they were just being kept on a lead previously. Vieira’s problem might have been not knowing when to pull the trigger, but he’d loaded the gun, and he’d even taken it to town — it was just taken off him when he got there ‘cos he didn’t wanna shoot. And if you don’t shoot in a duel, you get shot.
Score: 0
EVERTON
Predicted: 18th / Actual: 17th
The continued optimism that surrounds this team after two of the most dreadful seasons in their history is staggering. I fully understand celebrating final day survival, but they’re still acting as if this is a blip and that it won’t continue to afflict them going forward while taking no steps to improve their situation in any meaningful way. That being said, there is no doubt that Dyche came in and calmed things down, and just got them playing again, passing from the middle and spreading. But the inconsistency is wild, and if any of that core is to depart, the resulting quake could either rock The Toffees off their perch, or galvanise them to build something new. The direction is towards change though, because more of the same is something to dread.
Score: -1
FULHAM
Predicted: 19th / Actual: 10th
This is where gut feeling let me down. But with this season, a passionate Marco Silva and his impassioned side have won me over. Well, Silva has at least, and the way he dictates The Cottagers. There’s still a bit to this Fulham side that isn’t clicking for me, but a top ten Premier League finish in a first season back shan’t be sniffed at, and while I think this is a relative calm before the storm, there’s still time for Silva to steer ’em clear of it.
Score: -9
LEEDS UNITED
Predicted: 14th / Actual: 19th
I’d have kept Jesse. I liked him, nae, I loved the man. We weren’t scoring a tonne, but we were making chances, and I maintain belief that, given more time, the pressure alone would have produced the goals required for Leeds’ comfortable survival.
But maybe it isn’t belief. Maybe it’s hope.
And it’s the hope that kills you.
This felt like the collapse of a project that had been long-coming. The mishandling and mismanagement of a vision post-director. They could never fully evacuate from the shadow, and never seemed fully willing to do so either. The final day was a turning page, or maybe even the closing of a book, as the old guard packed up, and new hope held firm in the face of fire.
But you know what we say about hope…
Score: -5
LEICESTER CITY
Predicted: 10th / Actual: 18th
A lot of the team looked tired. They started tired, they woke up for a bit, and while I’m sure there wasn’t, it had that feeling of ‘too big to go down’ or ‘champions too recently to go down’ — that was not the case. They actually displayed on several occasions just what they were capable of, but they started shipping goals and making silly mistakes on a regular basis, and then suddenly, they were too far adrift, not realising perhaps, quite how far away they were from shore before it was too late, and they were too tired, to swim back.
Score: -8
LIVERPOOL
Predicted: 1st / Actual: 5th
It’s hard to pinpoint what actually happened here without simply detailing the fact that the teams above Liverpool pounced on the few errors they did make. But when The Reds were cooking, they were on fire, there’s no doubt. It’s just when they weren’t cooking, they weren’t even lukewarm. They were out of ideas far too often for a side aiming for the title, and while some players were still settling in, there was perhaps a call for a switch-up in the approach that was so successful for so many seasons prior…
Score: -4
MANCHESTER CITY
Predicted: 2nd / Actual: 1st
Just, simply put, one of the best performances to take the title from under the nose of a rival. After a February defeat to Tottenham, which was one in a string of defeats that halted any winning streaks, they went fifteen games unbeaten, winning fourteen of them, including twelve on the bounce. You can’t run from that. They powered through rivals and fodder alike, showing that Pep and his treble-winning side are just irrepressible. There was a moment, there was a switch, in all of those competitions, when The Citizens simply seemed inevitable. And so it came to be.
Score: -1
MANCHESTER UNITED
Predicted: 6th / Actual: 3rd
Weird season. But I wouldn’t be complaining if I was a Red Devils fan. Mainly because I’d be too busy hating myself, but also because I wouldn’t find a lot to complain about. A new manager who has taken no prisoners and has exercised his will to imprint his style on this side, exorcising any ghosts in the process. Some spectres still remain, but the way they play and the spirit they show is better than anything I’ve seen in years. Third place is mighty for a team in the midst of that process, and adding in two cup finals and one cup win, and the only fear for level-headed supporters might be that their desire for improvement season-on-season will not be satiated after such a feast this time out.
Score: -3
NEWCASTLE UNITED
Predicted: 9th / Actual: 4th
They just kept going. At one point it seemed as if they were gonna drop off with a five-game winless streak in which they looked particularly uninspired, but it was worth noting that the first three games of that winless run were three draws at the tail-end of a seventeen game unbeaten run. They were just in games, in a way Newcastle haven’t been in years. Players started playing like we knew they could play this whole time, there was optimism, there was inspiration, there was magic at St. James’ Park, and the noble magician at its helm might not want to see his source of magic acknowledged, but we can, for now, appreciate his skill in its… Execution.
Score: -5
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Predicted: 13th / Actual: 16th
Not sure what was going on with the transfers, ‘cos what came up was a tight, interesting, talented squad that looked primed and ready to take on the top flight. Some of the transfers made sense, and looked like they made sense, but the majority looked panicky with a chance of meatballs. I suppose it ended up working, and in the end, wouldn’t you rather have too much and sand it down than have too little and be without the resources to fatten it up. Glad to see they stuck with Stevie Coops and wish him the best ‘cos he’s awesome and, y’know, a human being, but if Forest’s plan is to streamline from here, then they’ve got a decent pedestal from which to work.
Score: -3
SOUTHAMPTON
Predicted: 16th / Actual: 20th
Those who I predicted to shine did so, but while three suns might light up a world, it doesn’t halt Premier League relegation. All those others whose brightness was required gave it all too infrequently, committing to sporadic glowings that couldn’t possibly lead to any long-term delivery satisfaction. Many have surprisingly pointed to the appointment of Nathan Jones as the damning spell that ultimately saw the club downed, but with the little time he was given, that seems a minor impossibility. The club needed large-scale change, and Jones could have been the man to give it to them, but sometimes relegation is a necessity. For the hogs to leave their watering hole, you’ve got to sometimes poison the well.
Score: -4
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Predicted: 4th / Actual: 8th
At this point, Spurs have done away with so many huge names in the managerial game that the position itself has to seem like somewhat of a poison chalice. Now that headline probably could have been written a few seasons back, but the point stands. I simply don’t see why though. Why it’s happening, I mean. I could see the hubris at Manchester United, but at Spurs? All involved looked eager for whoever came in to work out, and they gave themselves over to each regime that rolled into town. And maybe that’s the problem. Maybe there’s no philosophical foundation here. Maybe what we have are a group of players wandering lost until put into line — sans personality, sans character, sans soul — gone with their last great leader. Ange does not need to rebuild the skill of this side, only their broken belief. A monkey can dance, but the monkey must also believe that the dancing is for something, otherwise it only frolics for laughs.
Score: -4
WEST HAM UNITED
Predicted: 7th / Actual: 14th
I’m sure they’ll take a drop-off of their heroics of previous seasons as it has come with the delightful addition of a European trophy. Their transfer activity may not have been the grandest, but it provided them with options, and by mid-season, a particular breadth of side was identified as fit for use (figuratively) and did their job admirably. Winning the Conference League, yes, but also securing top flight safety alongside. There’s a foundation for next season, and it’s steady enough, but while filing, they must be sure not to grind too close to the bone. This Summer comes with a bigger ask than it looks for The Hammers.
Score: -7
WOLVES
Predicted: 12th / Actual: 13th
The award for second most boring team in the league could be seen as a backhanded compliment, but I guarantee, not being able to recall the scores beforehand, that if I look up the two Wolves vs. Chelsea games this season, I will see that there was one goal shared across the 200-odd minutes…
Alright there was four. But the fact I didn’t remember might mean something. Maybe not.
Lopetegui came about and made this side watchable, albeit in a very safe way. What needs to come out of this side, however, is the passion their manager displays on a daily basis. I ain’t one for stoicism, and Wolves ain’t either, they’re just somewhere in between at the moment, lost halfway between hell and nowhere. Talent can get you to the great footballing show, but if you wanna be any good when you get there, show a little something from in here…
I’m pointing at my ass.
Score: -1
I was way too confident when I started this article. Upon forming my opening ramble, I thought I’d done quite well. Not fantastic, just quite well. But as I’ve gone through each side and given them their score, the lack of -1 and -2 scores were cause for alarm. Far too many -5 and -9 scores to make me comfortable.
But football makes me comfortable, at the best of times I mean. It can be occasionally hard to look beyond its murky waters to the gold within (that still requires a thorough sieving), but the treasure is there, and in its concentrated form, it causes a dizzying high that I’m willing to fly with.
But to this.
My confidence has dissipated. If it were a beverage, evaporation would have seen to most of it. If it were a rock, erosion would have taken hold. If my confidence were a healthily rotund snowman, then the sun has climbed over the fells and forced its rays upon my Frosty, rendering him a carroted puddle on the ground.
-56 is but a pipe dream…
Do I deserve a worst ever score?
-90
Huh. Just a worst ever score. If that’s not incentive to really work on this next time out, then I have less pride than I thought.
MY BIGGEST WINNERS — Crystal Palace — 0, Aston Villa, Everton, Man City, Wolves — -1
MY BIGGEST LOSERS — Brighton, Chelsea, Fulham — -9, Brentford, Leicester — -8
Next season, I’m putting in the time. I’m gonna engage my head, my heart, my gut, and my shockingly prophetic arse to get a reading on each and every league I predict. No cutting corners.
Unless I’m tired.
Or bored.
Or hungry.
Or watching the footy.
Keep it streets ahead,
C.L.R.
